Projections as “information”

“Fracking’s Secret Problem—Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast,” The Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2018.  Actual production from oil wells doesn’t measure up to what investors were told.

Two or three points here.  First, projections and forecasts are, in certain respects, “information.”  You use these to make a decision to buy or not to buy.  But, like opinions, they may be somewhat divorced from “truth.”  That’s both the use of Information, and weighting of its value.

But there are questions relating how does the rule maker (here, the government) set limits on the optimism of forecasts in the investment arena (Governance)?;  how do promoters go about complying with those limits (which is both Governance and Compliance)?; and how do investors factor in/out the optimism factor (which has aspects of Governance and both the use and the value of Information)?